Each line in the illustration above represents a possible path of an investment of $100 through four periods. The horizontal line at 90% represents the loss threshold of 10%. Only one of the five paths breaches this threshold at the end of the horizon. Thus, the likelihood of a 10% loss, , is 20%. If instead we consider any point within the time-horizon, four of the five paths breach the investment time-horizon. The likelihood of a 10% loss is 80%.